No, You're Wrong.

I had this woman's book in Texas a few weeks ago and showed it to my dad. He took a look at it and scoffed: "She's too young to know what she's talking about."

Then, he got angry:

"Anyone who wasn't there had. No. Idea."

Dad's often right about these things. Here's the July 12 Washington Post op-ed piece:

Phil Gramm Is Right

By Amity Shlaes
Saturday, July 12, 2008; A13

"In serious consideration for ambassador to Belarus." That's the role John McCain joked that former senator Phil Gramm might have in a McCain administration. Gramm is McCain's most senior economic adviser, the one best qualified to lead the finance team of a McCain presidency. Now, however, Gramm faces political exile because he made the mistake of telling the truth.

What prompted the abrupt demotion? The short answer is what might be called Campaign Econ. Campaign Econ says the American economy is a certain way because Americans think it is. Campaign Econ competes with real economics and often wins -- with damage that extends way beyond, say, the political career of either Phil Gramm or John McCain.

Consider what happened this week. While speaking with the Washington Times, Gramm said that the country was not in a true recession but a "mental recession." He also said, "We have sort of become a nation of whiners" and "You just hear this constant whining, complaining about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline."

Gramm was right about the recession and stood by his recession comments on Thursday. A recession is two consecutive quarters in which the economy shrinks, and last quarter it grew. But no matter. Voters feel they are in a recession, and so they are, at least according to Campaign Econ.

... and here's today's news. I'm betting the Post news side (as opposed to the editorial side) really enjoyed this one:

NBER: U.S. In Recession That Began Last December

By Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, December 1, 2008; 12:48 PM

It's official: The United States is in a recession -- and it started a year ago.

The nation's economy peaked, and the recession began, in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced today.

The group's Business Cycle Dating Committee, the semi-official arbiter of these things, defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators."

While analysts have been all but certain that a recession has been underway for months, there has been some debate over exactly when it began. Last winter, employers started cutting jobs and growth slowed significantly, but the decline appears to have accelerated over the summer.

The committee concluded that the start of the recession was December 2007 -- due in large part, it said in a statement, to the decline in jobs that began that month. But it noted that many other data points confirm the diagnosis.

"The committee determined that the decline in economic activity in 2008 met the standard for a recession," the group said in its statement. "Evidence other than the ambiguous movements of the quarterly product-side measure of domestic production confirmed that conclusion. Many of these indicators, including monthly data on the largest component of GDP, consumption, have declined sharply in recent months."

The NBER committee could eventually conclude that the recession has already ended. However, economists outside the group think that is unlikely, given that most economic data released in recent weeks have been getting worse, not better.

And perhaps in a related move, the fourth-worst drop ever for the Dow, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal:

•  MARKETS
• DECEMBER 1, 2008, 5:07 P.M. ET

Stocks Suffer Steep Declines

A torrid winning streak for stocks ended abruptly and painfully Monday as disappointing readings of manufacturing activity both overseas and in the U.S. fueled investors' fears of a global slowdown worse than previously expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had leapt nearly 17% over the previous five sessions, tumbled 7.7% on Monday, off 679.95 points to end at 8149.09, off 39% on the year. The losses accelerated late in the session, leaving all 30 of the Dow's blue-chip components lower on the day.

Among the average's big losers were its financial components. Citigroup andBank of America both fell more than 20%. Economically sensitive names likeAlcoa, off 13.5%, Caterpillar, down 10.8% and General Motors, down 12.4%, also fell sharply.

The S&P 500 tumbled 8.9% to 816.20, down 44.4% on the year. All its sectors ended sharply lower, led by financials, off 16.4% as a group. Even the day's strongest sector -- consumer staples -- was off by 5.1%. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 8.8% to 1399.91, down 47.3% on the year. The small-stock Russell 2000 fell 11.8% to 417.30, down 45.6% on the year.

The breadth of Monday's losses reflected resurgent economic fears. Traders flocked to Treasury bonds for safety and unloaded oil -- which slipped below $50 a barrel -- and other raw materials that appear likely to suffer a continued pullback in demand amid the global slowdown.

"There's a lot of red on my screen right now -- not a lot of places to hide," said trader Roger Volz, of Hampton Securities in New York. "The question now is how long does the down leg last until we get into an oversold condition again. In past down legs in this market, it's sometimes seemed to drag on interminably."